Will Lake County's 2023 votes on abortion and marijuana be indicative of 2024?

PAINESVILLE, Ohio — On the shores of Lake Erie sits the appropriately named Lake County. Its roughly 160,000 voters aren't collectively going to swing an election, but in the early 2000s, they commanded our attention by producing results, like in the 2004 Presidential election between George Bush and John Kerry, that mirrored the rest of the state, which at the time reflected the country as a whole.

“The voting patterns at that time we were very purple area, and so Republicans win, Democrats win," said Lake County GOP Chair Dale Fellows. “I think we're like a microcosm of what the United States looks like and what people are thinking, especially here in the midwest. Our voters here are very discerning voters, I mean they really look into the issues, they look into the candidates.”

Yes, the county that was home to President James Garfield was now commanding the attention of those who wanted to join his ranks.

"We've had every Republican president and or candidate for president in Lake County since George H.W. Bush,” Fellows proudly boasted.

Democratic State Rep. Dan Troy said Lake County's growth came in the 50s and 60s, fueled on the western end by the flight from Cleveland.

"I always say in the Ws the Willowicks, the Wickliffes, the Willoughbys. What they primarily were, were fairly moderate even to conservative blue collar Democrats,” Troy said. “We got to a point here in Lake County where we had like 18 elected officials in Lake County, seven judges, eleven executive officers of which probably at any given time about half were Democrats and half were Republicans and people would vote for the person,” he said.

But in recent election cycles, Lake has shifted more Republican.

“The growth in the county has been more in the center of the county in the Mentor, the Concord, Painesville Township area, tends to be the next generation. As I've said, initially they tended to be more economic Republicans. They basically preferred the Republican side, maybe more on tax policy.”

“I think what we see now is descending into Lake County is what's happened pretty much all over America; we kind of got into tribalism, we got into voters showing up with the slate cards and saying 'I'm just voting for all of the Republicans' or 'I'm just voting for all of the Democrats', and that's gone down into things like our county officials, things like coroner, things like recorder, things like treasurer,” he said. “You know I don't know if there's any Democrat or Republican way to run a coroner's office or to run a recorders office?”

“Now we're to the point where I'm the last surviving Democratic elected office holder in Lake County,” Troy said,

Donald Trump won Ohio by eight points in 2016 and '20. He won Lake County, though, by roughly 15 and 13.5 points. As a result, as the Lake County GOP heads into this election?

"I feel very cautiously optimistic,” said Fellows. “I’m always like that but pretty confident that we're going to do really well in Lake County."

The caution, though, is tied to the fact that voters here are not entirely in lockstep with the GOP. Republicans, you'll remember, last year pushed hard in August to first make it harder to amend the state constitution and then in November against an amendment guaranteeing reproductive rights and another legalizing recreational marijuana. Lake County voters not only sided with Democrats in all three votes but did so by margins greater than the rest of the state.

"People love our issues,” said Dan Crowder, President of the Lake County Young Democrats.

He and other Democrats have learned, though, that you can't count on that support to automatically transfer.

"People overwhelmingly supported Issue 2 last year for cannabis,” said Crowder. Republicans were campaigning against it. It passed overwhelmingly, but in this county, you still saw people vote yes on Issue 1 for reproductive rights, vote yes on Issue 2 for recreational marijuana and then they voted Republican candidates that were railing against those two issues and campaigning against those two issues."

Susan Fogle of Gainesville said that’s because how she may feel about abortion or marijuana doesn't change how she feels about other issues like immigration.

"Voting with the Democrats and allowing these open borders, you know, and I'm not against people, I'm a Christian, but I believe in law and order,” Fogle said.

Valeria Rodriguez of Painesville said she voted to protect Reproductive Rights and for Marijuana but is still on the fence about this November.

"I still need to look at the stuff. I'm leaning towards blue, but again, I'm going to look at, I will do my research and see like 'hey is this what I want? Is this something I support? Is this something I can look past,'” asked Rodriguez.

She said that no matter how you come to your decision, make sure you come to a decision.

"My biggest pet peeve is when people just talk about issues and don't do anything about it. I'm like, 'well did you do something about it? Because if you're not doing anything about it then why are you even?'” she asked.