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Economy experts confident about northwest Ohio's recovery prospects

NW Ohio businesses seen as resilient, ready to rebound
Published By Port Clinton News Herald on March 3, 2021
Jon Cross In The News

BOWLING GREEN - A series of hundreds of checkmarks line a whiteboard that sits in the office of Bowling Green State University President Rodney Rogers. 

On Tuesday, Rogers checked off the 358th, marking exactly that many days since the global pandemic from the novel coronavirus hit the United States as former President Donald Trump declared a national emergency due to COVID-19 on March 13, 2020. 

“Some people ask me, ‘Why do you keep track of the days?’” Rogers said. “The reason I keep track of the days is because we’re one day closer. We are one day closer as we move through this, as we find ways to move forward.”

In many ways, according to Rogers, BGSU’s State of the Region conference held Tuesday was focused on just that with its aim to reimagine and rebuild resilient economies and communities in northwest Ohio. 

The 19th annual conference, which was organized and moderated by BGSU’s Center for Regional Development, was hosted virtually for the first time via Zoom on Tuesday morning. 

The event is a gathering, albeit a virtual one this year, of many elected officials at the state and local levels, economic developers, business leaders and other experts from throughout northwest Ohio. 

While discussions at the conference illustrated the negative impact the pandemic has had on the region, as seen in numerous economic metrics, there was also an overarching sense of optimism in the ability of are industries to bounce back and recover. 

State Rep. Jon Cross, R-Kenton, who spoke from Columbus, said he, State Sen. Theresa Gavarone, R-Bowling Green, and other Ohio legislators are in the middle of the budget process. 

Cross said he has a lot of confidence in the region’s marketplace because many of the “true champions” of this pandemic have been Ohioans themselves. 

“Ohioans have gotten us through some of the most challenging times and it’s reflective of the budget process,” he said. “This budget process could have been more challenging, but because of consumer confidence and spending, I think we’re going to be in good shape.”

Rick Kaglic, vice president and senior regional officer at the Cincinnati Branch of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, discussed that confidence and how it contributed to the economic recovery to date and going forward. 

“One of the saving graces was that the government acted quickly to stabilize household balance sheets and prevent a financial panic,” Kaglic said. 

He explained that still fresh on many policymakers’ minds when the pandemic hit a year ago was how one of the most notable constraints to coming out of the Great Recession was the inability of households to spend. 

During the Great Recession, the average price of a home dropped by 30 to 35 percent, Kaglic said, which for many households was their biggest asset. Combined with challenges to credit flow, he said this left consumers in no position to spend. 

“Now, fast forward to 2020, the Fed acted quickly and decisively at the first signs of trouble to stabilize financial markets and prevent a dangerous decline in asset values,” he said. “And the federal government put together the largest stimulus package in our history, about $2.7 trillion.”

Partly as a result of those actions, Kaglic said household wealth recovered much more quickly this time compared to the Great Recession.

“This has left consumers in a much better place to spend than was the case 10 years earlier,” he said. “When we take a look at the big picture, consumer spending has recovered nicely.”

Also generating optimism about growth prospects in 2021 is the most recent data regarding the decline in new COVID-19 cases and an increase in vaccinations, Kaglic said. 

“The trends look good and more vaccines are on the way,” he said. “Folks are becoming more confident that they’ll be able to get out and about — and the businesses that I talk to, even including restaurants, are pretty confident that, while we’re going to see a rough ride in the near term, the economy is pretty well positioned for a robust recovery in the second half of the year.”

 
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